The federal government shut down just after midnight Wednesday, leaving more than 80,000 federal workers in Ohio facing furloughs or missed paychecks.
Shutdowns, or at least threats of them, aren’t new. During President Trump’s first term, one stretched for 35 days, which was the longest in U.S. history.
So, how long might this one last, and where could Ohio feel its effects the most?
Paul Beck is Professor Emeritus and Academy Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University.
Matthew Rand: Enough Congressional Democrats went along with the last continuing resolution back in March to avoid a shutdown and fund the government through the fiscal year. Why is the Democrats' calculation different this time, and what leverage do both parties think they have?
Paul Beck: Well, I think there's even less trust than there used to be, meaning even last year, between the two parties. And it's pretty clear that the Republicans are being directed from the White House, not through their own leadership in the House of Representatives or the Senate, for that matter. And so, that amplifies the mistrust. And President Trump, you know, to be quite truthful, doesn't seem to be on the same page as Congress, isn't sure what he wants to do with this. Given the backdrop of the last year, he might be quite delighted to have many fewer federal employees who are being paid. And that wasn't the background last year.
Matthew Rand: Depending on how long this goes, how could this shutdown be felt here in Ohio, both for government workers and their families and for the rest of us?
Paul Beck: It could be felt almost immediately, but as it stretches out over time, it becomes worse and worse. And of course, the other thing is that once there is an agreement on the budget, federal workers who were furloughed or whatever will get back pay, but that back pay can take a while. And so it may mean, particularly for the lower paid government employees, that they go without any income coming in, unless it's from a spouse or somebody else. It may be that they don't have any income coming in for months until after there is a resolution of this conflict.
Matthew Rand: I know one of the first things people talk about in a shutdown is air travel. TSA agents are required to stay on the job, right? So how could this affect flights?
Paul Beck: Well, it could be affected in that some of them may have built up leaves and they may decide that what they want to do is take their leave right now, given the uncertainty of things. And that would throw air travel into turmoil. At the very worst time, I mean, the highest levels of air travel, aside maybe from the summer months, comes certainly around Thanksgiving and again around Christmas and New Year's. And without passengers able to fly or at least able to get TSA approval to board, that could be just a horrible time for the airlines, some of which are perched on the brink of bankruptcy. So again, it's kind of a double dose of problems for them.
Matthew Rand: Democrats are making this a fight about healthcare subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. But the situation feels more existential than that, right? How long do you see this shutdown dragging out?
Paul Beck: Well, it depends on how stubborn both sides are. I think particularly the Democrats. The Trump administration and the House Republican leadership are hoping that at some point they will concede. I think given the backdrop of what has happened already in 2025, the likelihood of them conceding is much lower. They're under pressure from their own base. The healthcare cuts are going to be massive. It will have a real impact, although they are postponed for a while, but still they are coming there. They're already legislated, and that's going to have a major impact on Ohio and Ohioans, particularly Ohioans of retirement age. And there'll be a lot of small town and rural hospitals that will basically have to close down, because their profit margin is very much dependent upon Medicaid. And they're not going to have that Medicaid money coming in because of the cuts that have already been taken in the budget for 2026.
