NPR News

Here are the Senate races to watch ahead of Election Day

NPR | By Domenico Montanaro

Published October 30, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT

A person walks past a voting sign at the East Point Library on the first day of early voting on October 13, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. Early voting will run from October 13th- 30th with Election Day taking place on November 3rd.

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When this election cycle began, Democrats were seen as a longshot to pick up the Senate.

That's because so many seats that are up for election are in red states. But as the year has gone on and the war in Iran has continued, the field has widened considerably.

Polling, ad money and candidate and surrogate travel have all indicated competitive races in places Trump won by double digits in 2024. Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas are all considered Toss Ups, according to the Cook Political Report.

"I'm very energized," said Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., chairwoman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which is charged with trying to elect Democrats to the Senate. "We have so many candidates running in so many deep red and purple places, and they are winning, and it is exciting. People want change, and we have so much talent on the field right now. I feel very inspired."

The races in all of these competitive states where Trump won are within the margin of error.

Republicans have a decidedly different view.

"Senate Democrats' socialist surge has reached a fever pitch, and their desperate conspiracies to defraud voters appear criminal," said Bernadette Breslin, national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the counterpart to the DSCC.

She's referring to a controversy in the Alaska Senate race about the alleged involvement of members of the campaign for the Democratic candidate, Mary Peltola, to recruit Daniel J. Sullivan to run, as first reported by The New York Times. The incumbent Republican is named Dan Sullivan.

"Common-sense voters across red-leaning battlegrounds are preparing to reject the dangerously unaffordable agendas of Abdul El-Sayed [in Michigan], Troy Jackson [in Maine], and Mary Peltola—along with the Democrat Party's dying brand."

But showing the direction the winds have been blowing, North Carolina, where Trump won narrowly, and was seen as a Toss Up race at the beginning of this cycle, is now seen as a likely flip for Democrats. And Georgia, once thought to be a top Republican target, is now a likely hold for Democrats.

Even South Carolina, a place Trump won by 18 points, is only leaning toward the Republican Party. Mississippi and Nebraska are also more competitive than Republicans would like, but GOP candidates are favored there.

Democrats need to flip a net of four seats held by Republicans to win control of the Senate. And while the field is wide for Democrats, winning control is hardly a done deal. Republicans have a few targets on the board still, principally in Michigan, but also New Hampshire and Minnesota. Winning even one of those seriously complicates Democrats' math.

The key to whether the Democrats win the Senate and how big the Democratic wave is, if there is one at all, is likely to be Republican turnout. Low GOP turnout could mean the difference between Democrats netting one or two seats and picking up six or seven.

Let's take a look at the competitive states and where things stand, rated by tiers.

Tiers below are in order of most to least likely to flip. Within tiers, they are in alphabetical order. Ratings are based on the Cook Political Report:

Tier 1: NC (R)

Tier 2: MI (D), OH (R)

Tier 3: AK (R), ME (R), IA (R), TX (R)

Tier 4: KS (R), NH (D), SC (R), MN (D)

Tier 5: MS (R), NE (R), GA (D)

TIER 1: NC

NORTH CAROLINA (R-OPEN-Tillis retiring) — LIKELY D

Both parties concede former Gov. Roy Cooper is likely to be the next senator from the state — even President Trump apparently thinks so. "He's going to become your senator," Trump said during a stop in North Carolina earlier this month, "and it's crazy." 2024: TRUMP +3

TIER 2: MI (D), OH (R)

MICHIGAN (D-OPEN-Peters retiring) — TOSS UP

Republicans' best pick-up opportunity, this race will test whether a bold progressive can win in a purple state with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed's candidacy. But also factoring in here is former moderate Rep. Mike Rogers' (R) turn to MAGA and use of racist attacks to try and win. 2024: TRUMP +1

OHIO (R-Husted) — TOSS UP

Sherrod Brown's (D) decision to try for a comeback after being ousted in 2024 turned this race on its head. He's the challenger, but with his high name recognition and time in the Senate, Republicans have treated him as an incumbent. Trump has tried to boost incumbent Sen. John Husted (R) in recent weeks with explicit comments on his physique. But the issues here have Republicans on the defensive — the economy, gas prices and AI data center growth have given Democrats an opening for a pathway back in a state Trump has won three times. 2024: TRUMP +11

TIER 3: AK (R), IA (R), ME (R), TX (R)

ALASKA (R-Sullivan) — TOSS UP

The hijinks and misinformation ahead of the election here underscore that state's importance. Peltola appeared to have the inside track, but the late recruiting scandal threatens to derail that momentum. 2024: TRUMP +14

IOWA (R-OPEN-Ernst) — TOSS UP

From the governor's race down to the Senate and House race, Iowa looks poised to move left this cycle. Democrat Josh Turek is in a tight race with Trump-backed Rep. Ashley Hinson (R). Tariffs, the war and rising diesel prices have hurt the agricultural economy here and put Republicans on their heels. Plus, Democrats could get be helped by the gubernatorial run of Rob Sand (D), who has run one of the best campaigns of any candidate in the country. 2024: TRUMP +13

MAINE (R-Collins) — TOSS UP

Can Sen. Susan Collins (R) survive again? Polls showed her losing in 2020 and she gutted out a win. The race is tight, and Collins appears to be holding up, but the Democratic base of voters in the only Toss Up state won by Kamala Harris (D) in 2024, gives Troy Jackson (D) a real shot here. 2024: HARRIS +6

TEXAS (R-OPEN-Cornyn lost primary) — TOSS UP

It's hard to see Republicans flipping Michigan and losing Texas, but because of candidate quality in both places, it's possible. State Rep. James Talarico would have probably had a much harder time against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, but Trump decided to endorse the more MAGA-aligned — and scandal-ridden — state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the primary runoff. That has led to a Brinks truck being backed up into the state of Texas. More than $500 million has been spent on this race since the primary, more than $300 million of that from Republicans. Democrats haven't won statewide in Texas since 1994, there are lots of Republicans here, and Democrats have continued to come up short in recent years even with high levels of enthusiasm, so there's a healthy dose of "believe-it-when-I-see-it" skepticism here. But one thing to consider is that in 2018 when Democrat Beto O'Rourke lost to incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz by less than 3 points, he never led in a single poll. This time around, Talarico has led in almost every one, even if those leads have been within the margin of error. Something to watch: whether Gina Hinojosa's (D) gubernatorial campaign gets close and turns out big numbers of Latinos in South Texas. That could help Talarico over the finish line. 2024: TRUMP +13

TIER 4: KS (R), MN (D), NH (D), SC (R)

KANSAS — TOSS UP (R-Marshall)

Not all Toss Ups are created equal. This has been a surprisingly close race for incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R). He's facing a strong challenger in pastor Adam Hamilton and political headwinds because of Trump's policies' effect on the state's economy. Republicans insist Marshall will pull it off at the end of the day and note that Marshall's last race was closer than the lean of the state, too. This is a Toss Up, but the heavy Republican lean of the state makes this one seem less likely for Democrats, but wild things happen in wave years. 2024: TRUMP +16

MINNESOTA (D-OPEN-Klobuchar ran for governor) — LEAN D

One of only three states won by Harris in 2024, and in a year favoring Democrats, Minnesota is perhaps a surprise to be moving more in Republicans' direction in the final days. But Republicans have been trying to peg the lapses in state oversight for a Medicare fraud scandal to Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. Plus, Republicans like the race former NFL reporter Michelle Tafoya has been running. This may be a state that tends to vote Democratic but this a place that Hillary Clinton (D) only won by less than 2 points and Harris only won by 4. At the end of the day, the advantage still goes to Democrats here, but it doesn't mean they won't sweat. 2024: HARRIS +4

NEW HAMPSHIRE (D-OPEN-Shaheen retiring) — LEAN D

This has been a top Republican target since the beginning of the cycle when they felt they got a big recruiting win with former Sen. Jon Sununu. And they're hoping for a down-ballot effect with former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte favored to win the governorship. But the national political winds still mean Rep. Chris Pappas (D) is the slight favorite. 2024: HARRIS +3

SOUTH CAROLINA (R-OPEN-Graham died) — LEAN R

That this one is even being talked about is remarkable. Trump won here by 18 points in 2024 and Sen. Lindsey Graham was heavily favored before his untimely death. Trump pushed for Graham's sister, Darline, to take the seat, but she's a political novice and has been getting swamped on the air with ads boosting Democratic nominee Annie Andrews. Republicans have the edge because of the lean of the state but watch Black turnout here. If it's presidential-level high, Democrats could have a shot. 2024: TRUMP +18

Tier 5: MS (R), NE (R), GA (D)

MISSISSIPPI (R-Hyde-Smith) — LIKELY R

Democrats have been saying for months that this one could be competitive if the political winds get even stronger. That's happened, and they like their candidate. But it would be a shocker if this state that went by more than 20 points for Trump flipped. It's heavily Republican despite its large Black population because white voters vote in extraordinarily high numbers for Republicans here. 2024: TRUMP +22

NEBRASKA (R-Ricketts) — LIKELY R

No one is surprised this cycle by Dan Osborn's independent candidacy. So Republicans are confident this one stays in their hands. But Osborn making this a race at all is an indication of the difficult national environment for Republicans and the kinds of non-GOP candidates that can have an appeal in red states. It's also an example of how bad the Democratic brand is in some of these places, too. 2024: TRUMP +20

GEORGIA (D-Ossoff) — LIKELY D

This was supposed to be a top GOP target but Ossoff's candidacy and his war chest have made him the heavy favorite. Once this one's official, the political world will be waiting for the launch of the Ossoff 2028 campaign. 2024: TRUMP +2