Democrats in Ohio think this year they will turn the state from red to blue…or at least to purple. And part of that effort is a new coordinated campaign the state party is pursing. But they'll be fighting Republicans who will be working to hang onto control of the state.
There were more votes cast by affiliated Democrats in this primary than in the last primary. And Ohio Democratic Party Chair Kathleen Clyde said though the party didn't have candidates for all statewide offices until January, the vote totals show good energy for her candidates.
“We saw a historic turnout on the Democratic gubernatorial primary, higher voter turnout," Clyde said in an interview. "The highest voter turnout that we've seen since 2006, which was a strong year for Democrats, winning all of the statewide offices except for one.”
That year Ted Strickland became the first and only Democrat to be elected governor since Richard Celeste in 1986.
Clyde said the "Ohio Wins" campaign will use a state-of-the-art data and analytics team to ensure voter contact efforts are microtargeted to specific voters, along with a website to keep voters informed and allow them to volunteer to be part of the process. Clyde said the party has been out talking to voters in all 88 counties, including in areas where it hasn’t been strong, including rural areas and cities where support has dropped off in recent years.
“We are staffing up, we have staff deployed around the state, and we'll be increasing that presence, doing a strong field operation, voter protection, data and operations, and doing the work to get our message out to voters all across the state," Clyde said, noting 20 staff members have been hired—most from Ohio—and more will be. "We are welcoming Republicans, independents, and Democrats, to, this campaign. Our message is not a necessarily a partisan one. We are working to lower costs for Ohio families and get our state turned around."
Clyde said there will be a record-setting investment in infrastructure to protect ballot access, including the hiring of a voter access director.
Clyde isn’t giving out the dollar figure for the new campaign but says there will be plenty of money from its national, state and local partners to fund the operation that will be reminiscent of former President Barack Obama’s Organizing for America initiative.
Republicans think they have the advantage
The Ohio Republican Party has controlled state government for most of the past three decades, and has had more fundraising success along with ballot success than Democrats have. Chairman Alex Triantifilou said his candidates are going to have the resources and party organization they need to win.
“We endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy early, something that came with some controversy a year ago when we did it, but we thought it was the right strategy to coalesce," Triantafilou said. "Vivek has, between a super PAC and his own investment plus his record-breaking fundraising, nearly $80 million available to him, and that number's gonna get bigger."
After election night, Republican were stressing unity, though the GOP had more statewide primary contests than Democrats in this primary. Vivek Ramaswamy won the nomination for governor with 82% and Treasurer Robert Sprague easily won the nod for secretary of state. But the race for treasurer was much closer, with former Rep. Jay Edwards, backed by Vice President JD Vance and U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno, beating Sen. Kristina Roegner, who was endorsed by Ramaswamy. And four Republicans vied for the opportunity to run against the lone Democrat in statewide office, Justice Jennifer Brunner. Former Frankin County Common Pleas Judge Colleen O'Donnell emerged the winner in that contest.
"Politically, the operational side of what we do, we feel very strong," Triantafilou said. "So my big takeaways are that we're united, well-funded and ready to deliver victories in what we know is going to be a challenging midterm environment.”
Gas is expensive and some families are challenged to make ends meet, but Triantafilou said they are still better off than they'd be under Democrats because Republicans have lowered taxes and put more money in people's pockets.
Looking at the numbers
A national expert in campaign strategy and party politics said Republicans do have the edge in Ohio when you look at history. But Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said this new effort by Democrats makes sense.
“Democrats need to try something different. I think they do have some benefit from the national environment. We will see if it can translate into some victories," Kondik said.
Kondik noted the GOP has had a stronghold in statewide offices for most of the past three decades, long before the national politics swung more conservative. But he said these new efforts by Democrats could help around the margins.
“If the environment is such that Democrats can get close, maybe certain things they are trying to do could be impactful," Kondik said. "I will say that the state Republican organization has a long track record of a lot of success. I think they’ve had positive developments for themselves at the federal level. I think Trump becoming the head of the Republican Party has been, on balance, good for Republicans in Ohio.”
Kondik said the last time Democrats were in a good national environment in 2018. Ohio Democrats also had some victories. That year former U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown was reelected, and Democrats won two seats on the Supreme Court and gained a few seats in the Ohio House. But Republicans still held the state legislature and won all of the statewide elected non-judicial executive posts, and ran the table again in 2022.
