Central Ohio economist Bill Lafayette with Regionomics released his economic outlook for the region at a Columbus Metropolitan Club Forum on Wednesday for its annual Blue Chip Economic Forecast.
Lafayette expects the economy to grow at a slower rate than last year, but doesn't expect a recession. Last year's prediction underestimated job growth.
Lafayette said that barring a recession, he expects a 0.7% increase of 8,000 net new jobs. Last year, he predicted a gain of 0.5% for 2025. Job growth ended up doubling his expectations, adding more than 14,000 jobs to the local economy.
Lafayette also said less reliable monthly job growth estimates are to blame for his prediction being off.
"Rather than nudging the estimates, I should have shoved them. When the revisions came out, they showed a 2024 gain of 1.2%, pretty close to the national average. So I alarmed you for no good reason," Lafayette said.
Columbus' job growth outpaced the national averages last year, which Lafayette said he expects to continue.
Lafayette said tariffs, consumer sentiment, inflation and the immigration crackdown are causing headwinds in the economy.
Lafayette added he is really worried about President Donald Trump's crackdown on immigration and how it will affect the region's ability to grow.
"I think, to be honest, that this campaign chasing off immigrants is, to put it mildly, ill-advised," Lafayette said.
He said if migration to central Ohio from within the state and U.S. doesn't improve, he expects central Ohio to be in for "a nasty surprise" when the next few years of population estimates are released.
Lafayette and the other panelists at the Wednesday forum were asked about the impacts of artificial intelligence on the workforce. Lafayette was less optimistic about the growing technology than the other panelists, saying there have been layoffs due to A.I. He criticized the technology for being good at logic, but not creativity.
He said he expects some employers may backtrack on layoffs motivated by A.I. advancement.
"There's been an awful lot of hype surrounding AI, that AI can deliver us the moon and the stars. And that's not necessarily true," Lafayette said.
The panelists were also asked about Intel's stalled chip-fabricating plant in Licking County.
Lafayette initially didn't want to make a prediction on Intel's future in Ohio. He said Intel should be nudged along or the company should be encouraged to use its stagnant site in a productive way.
