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One poll gives J.D. Vance a slight lead over Tim Ryan

Time Ryan and JD Vance
AP Composite Photo
Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, on March 28, 2022, in Wilberforce, Ohio, left, and Republican candidate JD Vance on Aug. 5, 2022, in Dallas.

The race for U.S. Senate remains neck and neck, but there are signs that J.D. Vance is pulling ahead just a bit—at least in one poll.

On this week's episode of Snollygoster, Ohio's politics podcast from WOSU, hosts Mike Thompson and Steve Brown discuss the latest poll results and what they may mean in the state's biggest races.

Razor thin

Two polls were released this week. A poll by Cygnal has Vance up by four points, two points better than he did in a poll earlier this month.

And that four-point lead is outside the margin or error, just barely. But we can say Vance has a slight lead in the Cygnal poll.

Earlier this week, the latest Suffolk University/USA Today Network poll has the two candidates basically tied. Vance has a two-point edge over Democrat Tim Ryan—47% to 45%. That’s well within the poll’s margin of error.

However, the poll shows positive signs for Vance. He has widened his lead among men and white voters.

Both polls included “lean-ers,” still undecided voters who are leaning toward one or the other candidate. That can be tricky to judge, but Vance has more support among these undecided voters.

There's a governor's race too, right?

Both polls had good news for Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and bad news for Nan Whaley. DeWine has about a 20-point lead and leads among women and independents.

Whaley leads among those younger than 45-years-old, and among minority voters.

Whaley spoke to the Columbus Metropolitan Club this week. It was supposed to be a debate or at least a joint discussion between her and DeWine, but the governor didn't show. The Metropolitan Club had a symbolic empty chair on the stage.

Snollygoster of the week

In 2018, Republican leaders helped write an amendment to the Ohio Constitution that created the current system of drawing congressional maps. That amendment gives the Ohio Supreme Court authority to enforce anti-gerrymandering rules.

As we know the state's supreme court has tried many times to enforce those rules but Republican leaders have ignored them every time. Now Republican legislative leaders have appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court saying the state legislature has sole authority to draw congressional districts.

What’s interesting is one of the men saying Ohio’s system is unconstitutional actually helped write it.

Matt Huffman who in 2018 signed off on the Ohio Supreme Court’s authority to rule on Ohio’s maps now says the court has no role in the process.

If you have a suggestion for our Snollygoster of the Week award, a question or a comment, send them to snollygoster@wosu.org.

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